Simulation of non-stationary ground motions and its applications in high concrete faced rockfill dams via direct probability integral method

Abstract

Many high concrete face rockfill dams (CFRDs) have been constructed in earthquake-prone areas in recent years, and it is essential to evaluate the seismic safety performance of these dams considering the randomness of seismic excitation. In this paper, the relationship between the stochastic ground motion generation method and the direct probability integral method (DPIM) is established by using the number theory point selection method as the bridge. The DPIM is introduced into the field of stochastic dynamic analysis and multi-index reliability evaluation of high CFRD for the first time. First, a non-stationary stochastic excitation model at five sites is established based on the latest standard for the seismic design of hydraulic structures. Then, taking a practical project as an example, stochastic dynamic response analysis and reliability assessment based on dam crest settlement deformation and dam slope cumulative slippage are conducted by using DIPM. Finally, the influence of these two indexes on reliability is explored by drawing the equal failure probability curve. The results show that the stochastic dynamic analysis and reliability assessment framework established in this paper can provide probabilistic seismic safety assessments for high CFRDs. Sliding damage of the dam slope is more likely than the deformation damage of the rockfill from the perspective of probability.