Simulation of Marine Debris Path Using Mathematical Model in the Gulf of Thailand

Abstract

Marine debris is an important environmental problem that affects aquatic animals, ecosystems, economy, society, and humans. This research aims to simulate the path of marine debris in the Gulf of Thailand using a mathematical model that includes two models: the Oceanic Model (OCM), which is based on the Shallow Water Equations (SWE), and the Lagrangian Particle Tracking (LPT) model. The OCM is the partial derivative equation system solved by the finite difference method to satisfy the Arakawa C-grid and the splitting method. The LPT model includes the current velocity, wind velocity at 10 m above sea level, random walk term, and the buoyancy ratio of marine debris with six cases, which are 100:1, 10:1, 1:1, 0:1, 1:10, and 1:100. The current velocity from OCM is applied to the LPT model. This research uses a garbage boat that capsized near Koh Samui on 1 August 2020 as a case study. The simulated current velocity of OCM is compared with Ocean Surface Current Analyses Real-time (OSCAR) data. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of u-velocity is 0.070 m/s, and that of v-velocity is 0.058 m/s. The simulation of the marine debris’s path from the LPT model demonstrates the movement to Koh Samui, Koh Taen, Koh Wang Nai, Koh Wang Nok, Koh Rap, the east coast of Nakorn Si Thammarat province, Phu Quoc Island of Vietnam and the middle of the Gulf of Thailand with the different buoyancy ratios and time durations.