Simulation of land utilization change and ecosystem service value evolution in Tibetan area of Sichuan Province

Abstract

Dynamic monitoring and prediction of ecosystem service value (ESV) under land utilization change is of great significance to maintaining regional ecological security. In order to enrich the study of ESV changes in plateau region by using the improved equivalent factor method of unit area value, the western Sichuan Plateau was taken as the research object. In this paper, given the land use data of the western Sichuan Plateau in 2000, 2010 and 2020, efforts have been made to construct the suitability image collection of the study area and to amend the CA-Markov model as to predict the land use pattern in 2030. In addition, the improved ESV evaluation model was constructed to study the spatial and temporal dynamic variation features of ESV. The results showed that: Woodland and grassland are the main types of land utilization in the study area. There are frequent interchanges between various land utilization types. The overall reduction of ESV, decrease of 3.4917 × 109 yuan/a, mainly due to the conversion of woodland to other land types. The high-value areas of ESV in the study area are closely tied to rivers. Two areas with high ESV value were formed in the study area. The findings of the study enriched the research system of land use and ecosystem service value in the plateau region, provided basic data for the construction of regional ecological security pattern, and enhanced regional sustainable development.