Simulation of land-use pattern evolution in hilly mountainous areas of North China: A case study in Jincheng

Abstract

Land-use pattern evolution is vital and essential for regional development. In northern China, hilly mountainous areas are widespread and have frequent mining activities. Analyze of the land-use evolutionary rule is a major barrier for making urban planning and identification suitable for various land-use types in these regions. This study has attempted from the perspective of Earth system science, using the FLUS model to simulate land-use pattern evolution in the stages of 2010‐2017 (test) and 2017–2025 (simulation) in Jincheng, Shanxi Province. The results show that (1) at the test stage, the FLUS model can better simulate the change in land-use types. The AUC value of all land-use types was greater than 0.8. Comparing the simulation results with the real land-use pattern in 2017, the global kappa value is 0.75, and the fom value is 0.43, which can be used for the forecast demand. (2) At the simulation stage, comprehensively considering natural, social, and economic factors, the land-use patterns are found to be spatially competitive in different scenarios. The planning scenario (PS) focused on the reasonable distribution of various industries, the ecological protection scenario (EPS) emphasized the importance of ecological land, and the sustainable development scenario (SDS) satisfied the needs of the socioeconomic system for various land-use types. (3) In general, analysis of land-use types change under the 3 different scenarios in the 15 years: the mountainous areas in the east and west were changed from grassland to forest, and the hilly and plain areas in the central part changed from farmland to forest.