Simulation of Intra-seasonal Climatic Variability, Potential Yield and Yield Gap of Sugarcane for the South Gujarat Region, India

Abstract

The validated CANEGRO (DSSAT v4.7) model was used to simulate the intra-seasonal climatic variation viz. temperature (-3oC to +3oC) and rainfall (-25% to +25%) variability in sugarcane yield and quantifying the yield gap of sugarcane at Navsari, Bharuch, Surat and Valsad districts of south Gujarat region under the various management options included dates of planting, irrigations and fertilizers application and compared with the reported yield of the districts. The cane yield increased with an increase in rainfall and a decrease in temperature. In contrast, the cane yield decreased with a decrease in rainfall and an increase in temperature. The extent of effect was found to vary with crop growth stages. The potential yield of sugarcane simulated by the model in different districts was found to vary between 107.0 to 114.7 t ha-1, while the reported yield in these districts varied between 68.1 to 72.0 t ha-1. This resulted in a total yield gap between 38.9 to 45.5 t ha-1 in different districts. The highest yield gap was in Navsari district while the lowest yield gap was found in Bharuch district.