Abstract
This study presents a fusion of data-driven and physics-driven methodologies of energetic electron flux forecasting in the outer radiation belt. Data-driven NARMAX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Averages with eXogenous inputs) model predictions for geosynchronous orbit fluxes have been used as an outer boundary condition to drive the physics-based Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, to simulate energetic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt environment. The coupled system has been tested for three extended time periods totalling several weeks of observations. The time periods involved periods of quiet, moderate, and strong geomagnetic activity and captured a range of dynamics typical of the radiation belts. The model has successfully simulated energetic electron fluxes for various magnetospheric conditions. Physical mechanisms that may be responsible for the discrepancies between the model results and observations are discussed.
Highlights
The Van Allen radiation belts are composed of energetic charged particles that are trapped by the Earth’s magnetic field
This study presents a fusion of data-driven and physics-driven methodologies of energetic electron flux forecasting in the outer radiation belt
Data-driven NARMAX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Averages with eXogenous inputs) model predictions for geosynchronous orbit fluxes have been used as an outer boundary condition to drive the physics-based Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, to simulate energetic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt environment
Summary
The Van Allen radiation belts are composed of energetic charged particles that are trapped by the Earth’s magnetic field. Interactions that occur on timescales faster than the periodic motion in question lead to violations of the corresponding adiabatic invariant and to diffusion of the particle in energy or pitch angle. Local acceleration is caused by resonant wave-particle interactions with collective plasma instabilities found in the magnetosphere These can change a particle’s pitch angle and energy via violation of the first and second invariants. The physics behind radiation belt storm dynamics are not yet fully understood, and physics-based models, in particular, the wave models, are in a constant state of development They need a measure of the electron population entering the inner magnetosphere from the tail [e.g., Ganushkina et al, 2013, 2014].
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