Simulation of groundwater flow and seawater intrusion in response to climate change and human activities on the coastal aquifer of Gaza Strip, Palestine

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This study has investigated the potential impact of human activities and climate change on the groundwater budget, water levels, and seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifer of the Gaza Strip (State of Palestine) over the next two decades. The impact of a proposed measure to use alternative freshwater provision from desalinated seawater on the future groundwater quantity and quality was also analyzed. Following extensive analysis of available observed data, a three-dimensional groundwater flow model, coupled with variable-density saltwater flow and transport components, was utilized for the investigations. Compared with the benchmark scenario (SC0), the climate change scenario (SC1) suggests that over the next two decades, an average annual aquifer recharge of 6.3 Mm3 can be expected, while the human activities scenario (SC2) indicates that the groundwater levels will decline at a rate of 0.09 m/year with expected urban area expansion. The combined human activities and climate change scenario (SC3) indicate severe groundwater storage depletion and seawater intrusion over the next two decades. The alternative freshwater provision scenario (SC4) indicates a strongly positive response in groundwater recovery (quantity and quality) over the next decades. The findings of this study emphasize strongly that the human activity impact, rather than climate change, is the driving force of groundwater depletion and that groundwater recovery interventions will be crucial in the future and should be implemented urgently.