Simulation of emergency evacuation with crowd-gathering risk and evaluation methods: a case study of the mass rapid transit system in Taipei

Abstract

ABSTRACT Mass rapid transit (MRT) systems are the backbone of transportation infrastructure in many cities. During emergencies, indoor subway stations become particularly susceptible to panic and overcrowding, making evacuation difficult. Therefore, simulating the evacuation and sheltering processes of a large number of individuals during emergencies is key in urban disaster response. In this study, a spatial evacuation risk model was used to enhance the safety of evacuation strategies in an MRT system. Data were collected on spatial architectural floor plans, and a database for communication and pedestrian flow was established. The behavioral patterns and distribution of individuals within stations and the characteristics of refuge spaces were also investigated. To simulate the processes of evacuation and sheltering, the Pathfinder evacuation simulation tool was used to construct a three-dimensional spatial model of a subway station. Specific scenarios were then constructed to simulate the procedures of evacuation and sheltering. Subsequently, the factors contributing to overcrowding-related hazards were analyzed to examine the spatial risks associated with crowd aggregation and evacuation and provide recommendations for improvement. Given its numerous advantages, this approach can serve as a valuable reference for conducting risk assessments in other large-scale crowd aggregation spaces.