Abstract
A process-based, rate-summation model was developed to predict changes in daily age distribution and mortality of larvae and pupae of Aedes vexans (Meigen), a mosquito common in floodwater habitats. Predicted age distributions based on observed water temperatures were shown to match field populations closely. Predicted rates of survival to adult emergence were not significantly different from those observed in the field in most cases; however, field estimates had high variances. Model analysis showed that a 2°C change in average water temperature produced small changes (= 1 d) in predicted development time to adult emergence at temperatures >20°C, but larger changes (up to 10 d) at lower water temperatures. Predicted survival also decreased markedly at lower temperatures.
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