Simulation of deoxynivalenol intake from wheat consumption in Japan using the Monte Carlo method

Abstract

The aim of this study was to evaluate the current advisory level in Japan for deoxynivalenol (DON) in foods. To this end, we estimated the intake of DON based on its presence in wheat using a probabilistic computer simulation method. Values for the concentration of DON in wheat were based on those reported in surveys of 638 wheat samples conducted from 2002 to 2004. Data regarding consumption of 108 wheat-based products according to age group were obtained from the 2002 Japan national survey on food consumption. Two data sets on the consumption of wheat-based products and contamination of DON in wheat were analysed using three DON regulatory scenarios: no regulation, 1100 µg kg−1 and 2000 µg kg−1. Because consumption distributions contained two peaks for each age category, it was assumed that two log-normal distributions for each age category were needed to achieve a better fit to the distribution models. The results of simulated DON intake using the Monte Carlo method showed that children aged 1–6 years have the highest DON intake. However, the 95th percentile of simulated intake of DON in each age group was below the provisional maximum tolerable daily intake (TDI) of 1 µg kg−1 body weight using any regulation scenario. The 99th percentile of simulated DON intake in the 1–6-year-old group was greater than TDI at approximately 2 µg kg−1 body weight. These results suggest that the current dietary intake of DON from wheat consumption does not exert a significant health effect, but we may need to reconsider the current regulation value for the 1–6-year-old age group. In addition, we may need a better method to fit the distribution to the log-normal distribution better.