SIMULATION MODELLING OF STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS CLUSTERS IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The aim. The article is devoted to the development of methodological approaches to the strategic management of the development of transport and logistics clusters, which take into account opportunities and barriers, especially the domestic economic environment, as well as the specifics of certain types of economic activity. Methods. The economic and mathematical model is substantiated using the Savage criterion, which gives an opportunity to choose the optimal strategy of transport and logistics cluster development in the domestic conditions of management taking into account the different expectations of business entities. Methods similar to the Wald, Bayesian and Savage criteria were used for choosing optimal strategies in decision making theory and optimization problems of the following types were solved: when the distribution of states of the environment is unknown and assumed to be the most unfavourable; when it is known empirical expected distribution of environmental conditions and that is the average expected performance level for each indicator’s group; when it is known expected division of the priorities of the decision-making entity that is the average expected level of financial (organizational, etc.) support for a certain group of indicators. Results. Four types of “clean” cluster development strategies are identified and described, which can be used in various combinations by transport and logistics companies. The economic and mathematical model of the transport and logistics cluster performance is presented, which allows implementing a large number of combinations of types of cluster development strategy by taking economic, environmental, social and innovative measures, affecting different groups of performance indicators. The influence of all possible variants of the binary and ternary combination of different types of transport and logistics cluster development strategies on the cluster performance is considered. It is established that the greatest influence on the transport and logistics cluster performance is exerted by the combination of economic and innovative types of strategy. Practical significance. Given the interest of entrepreneurs in cluster forms of organization and the strengthening of cooperation with EU countries, present development promotes scientific approaches to modelling cluster development strategies in the economy of Ukraine. Relevance/originality. The developed simulation model increases the likelihood of implementing the most optimal combination of “clean” development strategies, contributes to a more accurate prediction of cluster development and as a methodological approach can be applied to various types of economic activity.