Simulation Modeling of the Process of Danger Zone Formation in Case of Fire at an Industrial Facility

Abstract

Proactive prevention and fighting fire at industrial facilities, often located in urbanized clusters, should include the use of modern methods for modeling danger zones that appear during the spread of the harmful combustion products of various chemicals. Simulation modeling is a method that allows predicting the parameters of a danger zone, taking into account a number of technological, landscape, and natural-climatic factors that have a certain variability. The purpose of this research is to develop a mathematical simulation model of the formation process of a danger zone during an emergency at an industrial facility, including an explosion of a container with chemicals and fire, with the spread of an aerosol and smoke cloud near residential areas. The subject of this study was the development of a simulation model of a danger zone of combustion gases and its graphical interpretation as a starting point for timely decision making on evacuation by an official. The mathematical model of the process of danger zone formation during an explosion and fire at an industrial facility presented in this article is based on the creation of a GSL library from data on the mass of explosion and combustion products, verification using the Wald test, and the use of algorithms for calculating the starting and ending points of the danger zone for various factor values’ variables, constructing ellipses of the boundaries of the distribution of pollution spots. The developed model makes it possible to calculate the linear dimensions and area of the danger zone under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, constructing a graphical diagram of the zones of toxic doses from the source of explosion and combustion. The results obtained from the modeling can serve as the basis for making quick decisions about evacuating residents from nearby areas.