Simulation modeling for wetland utilization and protection based on system dynamic model in a coastal city, China

Abstract

Wetlands are distributed between terrestrial ecosystem and aquatic ecosystem with unique hydrological and biological characteristics. However, increased human activities have caused wetland destroyed at alarming rates. Wetland conservation has become world's focus. Tianjin as one of China's developed cities is drawing the attention of the world. The wetland ecosystems in this area have been recognized for providing various ecological functions. Therefore, study on wetland utilization and conservation for this area is of great significance. This research deals with the dynamic simulation modeling of wetlands utilization and protection, and analysis on potential sustainable management policies. The objective of the study is to find a balance between economic development and wetland protection in this region. To this end, a system dynamic model for wetland management was constructed. The model was based on the analysis of 24 indexes and five subsystems, which are population, ecological, environmental, scientific, economic and social system. The statistical data in Tianjin from 1990 to 2008 have been used to verify the model. We also selected six typical models for scenario simulation in 2010, 2030 and 2050.The results show that: (1) Current wetland management approaches lead to wetland degradation; (2) Different scenario runs reveal that the other five wetland management models have obvious advantages; (3) The major causes for wetland degradation are unreasonable industry structure and environmental pollution. As for the alternative policies tested, ‘controlling population’, ‘improving wetland restoration technology’, and ‘improving industry structure’ are sustainable policies that lead to better conditions. Thus, we suggested that ecological protection, population control and industrial structure adjustment are sustainable approaches to achieve wetland wise utilization and protection in this area.