Simulation modeling for maritime port security

Abstract

United States ports must be prepared for the threat of a small-vessel attack using weapons of mass destruction (WMD). To reduce the risk of such an attack, modeling was conducted at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) in Aiken, South Carolina, to develop options for redeployment of existing maritime law enforcement resources, deployment of new resources, and optimal use of geographic terrain. Agent-based modeling (ABM) implemented by the Automated Vulnerability Evaluation for Risks of Terrorism (AVERT®) software was used to conduct computer-based simulation modeling. The port-specific models provided estimates for the probability of encountering an adversary based on allocated resources under varying environmental conditions and traffic flow rates. Defensive resources include patrol and response platforms, some of which may be more appropriate in particular environmental conditions. A diverse range of potential adversary and attack scenarios was assessed for a large area port and also for a port with a narrow inlet, thereby identifying vulnerable pathways. For chokepoint operations, the probability of encountering an adversary was estimated for various configurations and operational tempos. As traffic flow increased, the probability of encountering an adversary decreased because the adversary could assimilate into traffic, while security forces were preoccupied inspecting pleasure craft. However, there was a significant increase in the probability of encountering an adversary ( P(Encounter)) when additional patrols were added. Noted was a decreasing marginal benefit of additional patrols at low traffic levels. In open water, use of helicopters on patrol substantially increased the P(Encounter) by directing on-water security to target vessels. This capability was due to the far-reaching vision and speed capabilities of helicopters. As a result of ABM, more effective countermeasures can be deployed with available resources to reduce the risk of a small-vessel attack using WMD. The models can be expanded to all ports in the United States using generic models similar to those presented herein that can be matched to any port based on its size and shape.