Abstract
The work applied Simulation Modeling in Markovian Decision Theory, adapts infinite models of exhaustive enumeration method for the solution of allocation optimization in multi-purpose and multi-objective Nigerian River Basin Development Authorities, RBDAs’ planning and management problems by logically apportioning levels of development to various purposes while optimizing eight objectives in stages. This type of management problem is a decision problem and cannot be handled by linear programming which can only optimize one objective at a time. Methodology involves methods and experiments, data were collected from the River Basin Development Authorities, Ministries and Parastatals. Markov chain was used to assess solution. The result of the experiments shows policy 10, worst conflict condition calls for application of maintenance whenever the River Basin Engineering Development is in state 8 or very poor which interprets that development should be logically apportioned by the planning and management engineer as follows: Irrigated Agriculture-N3.86b, Water Supply-N8.82b, Hydropower-N13.42b, Flood Control-N17.52b, Drainages-N23.16b, Navigation-N25.58b, Recreation-N45.84b, Erosion Control-N61.84b. While E 10 represents expected yearly benefit: when the River Basin Engineering Development is apportioned as above stated from the limited available fund of the Federal Government Budget of N 200billon, at least a (revenue) benefit of N 1.108Trillion can be achieved under the worst condition of conflict objectives. This work also advises a maintenance programme for the River Basin in accordance with the result of experiments because the Basin should operate a minimum of 8years and a maximum of 21 year for full capacity utilization of assets. Keywords : Simulation, allocation, optimization, Markov chain, River Basin Development DOI : 10.7176/JRDM/53-05 Publication date :March 31 st 2019
Highlights
1.0 Introduction Previous works on multi-purpose Nigerian River Basin Engineering Development project planning with regard to optimization have considered a single objective; this objective in question is economic optimization, Ojiako (1985)
In view of the foregoing, it becomes necessary in multi-purpose water resources planning to consider economic efficiency and any other objectives that may be deemed necessary at planning stage for explicit, exhaustive and effective decision making
That the policy 10 calls for application of maintenance whenever the system (River Basin Engineering Development) is in state 8 or very poor
Summary
Previous works on multi-purpose Nigerian River Basin Engineering Development project planning with regard to optimization have considered a single objective; this objective in question is economic optimization, Ojiako (1985). In real life situation this is not always the case; other objectives can play significant roles along-side economic efficiency to determine levels of development to be apportioned to various purposes involved in water resources projects. Such other objectives include: Regional Economic Redistribution, Local Economic Redistribution, State Economy Redistribution, Federal Economic Redistribution, Environmental Quality Improvement, and Youth Employment. The planning engineer has considered benefits accruing from objectives outside economic efficiency as either too difficult and too abstract to measure or intangible. In view of the foregoing, it becomes necessary in multi-purpose water resources planning to consider economic efficiency and any other objectives that may be deemed necessary at planning stage for explicit, exhaustive and effective decision making
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