Simulation evaluation of urban low-carbon competitiveness of cities within Wuhan city circle in China

Abstract

Low-carbon city (LCC) is on the uptrend as it has been the goal of many cities in China. Urban low-carbon competitiveness (ULCC) reflects LCC construction results. Therefore, it is imperative to detect problems in the development of ULCC. Firstly, an evaluation indicator system of ULCC was established from the perspectives of driving and resistant force. Principal component analysis and K-means clustering analysis were employed for the evaluation and classification of ULCC of cities in Wuhan city circle respectively. The results were checked by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, and obstacle indicators analysis was used to find obstacles of each city. Secondly, this paper simulated the growth of ULCC via system dynamics modeling to find out problems of cities. The results showed that Wuhan and Huangshi will take the lead obviously in the development of ULCC, while there was little difference among other cities in this respect. Low-carbon competitiveness evolution trajectories of most cities were rising in the entire study period, but some presented a U-shaped type or a vibrating type. Most of these cities had problems in the process of low-carbon development. Suggestions for each city are provided to improve their ULCC in the construction of LCC based on the concrete analysis.