Simulation-based uncertainty correlation modeling in reliability analysis

Abstract

Due to destructive effects like temperature and radiation, today’s embedded systems have to deal with unreliable components. The intensity of these effects depends on uncertain aspects like environmental or usage conditions such that highly safety-critical systems are pessimistically designed for worst-case mission profiles. These uncertain aspects may affect several components simultaneously, implying correlation across uncertainties in their reliability. This paper enables a state-of-the-art uncertainty-aware reliability analysis technique to consider multiple arbitrary correlations; in other words, components’ reliability is affected by several uncertain aspects to different degrees. This analysis technique combines reliability models such as binary decision diagrams with a Monte Carlo simulation, and derives the uncertainty distribution of the system’s reliability with insights on the mean, quantile intervals, and so on. The proposed correlation method aims at generating correlated samples from the uncertainty distribution of components’ reliability such that the shape and statistical properties of each individual distribution remain unchanged. Experimental results confirm that the proposed correlation model enables the employed uncertainty-aware analysis to accurately calculate uncertainty at system level.