Simulation-based severe weather-induced container terminal economic loss estimation

Abstract

ABSTRACTContainer terminals play a critical role in maritime supply chains. However, they show vulnerabilities to severe weather events due to the sea–land interface locations. Previous severe weather risk analysis focused more on larger assessment units, such as regions and cities. Limited studies assessed severe weather risks on a smaller scale of seaports. This paper aims to propose a severe weather-induced container terminal loss estimation framework. Based on a container terminal operation simulation model, monthly average loss and single event-induced loss are obtained by using historical hazard records and terminal operation records as model inputs. By studying the Port of Shenzhen as the case study, we find that the fog events in March lead to the longest monthly port downtime and the highest monthly severe weather-induced economic losses in the studied port. The monthly average loss is estimated to be 30 million USD, accounting for 20% of the intact income. The worst-case scenario is found to be a red-signal typhoon attack which results in nearly 20% decrease in the month’s income. The results provide useful references for various container terminal stakeholders in severe weather risk management.