Abstract
Understanding storm surge inundation risk is essential for developing countermeasures and adaptation strategies for tackling climate change. Consistent assessment of storm surge inundation risk that links probability of hazard occurrence to distribution of economic consequence are scarce due to the lack of historical data and uncertainty of climate change, especially at local scales. This paper proposes a simulation-based method to construct exceedance probability (EP) curves for representing storm surge risk and identifying the economic impact of climate change in the coastal areas of Ise Bay, Japan. The region-specific exceedance probability curves show that risk could be different among different districts. The industry-specific exceedance probability curves show that manufacturing, transport and postal activities, electricity, gas, heat supply and water, and wholesale and retail trade are the most affected sectors in terms of property damage. Services also need to be of concern in terms of business interruption loss. Exceedance probability curves provide complete risk information and our simulation-based approach can contribute to a better understanding of storm surge risk, improve the quantitative assessment of the climate change-driven impacts on coastal areas, and identify vulnerable regions and industrial sectors in detail.
Highlights
Between 1998 and 2017, disaster-hit countries reported direct economic losses amounting to US$ 2908 billion, of which climate-related disasters caused 77% of the total damages
Previous studies have focused on assessing storm surge inundation risk in terms of hazard prediction [18,19,20], there is little information on risk assessment that integrates storm surge inundation hazard, exposure, and vulnerability because of climate change
Storm surge inundations were simulated for all selected typhoon cases under the four climate scenarios
Summary
Between 1998 and 2017, disaster-hit countries reported direct economic losses amounting to US$ 2908 billion, of which climate-related disasters caused 77% of the total damages. The concept of risk in natural disasters emphasizes the integration of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, and promotes the decision process of hazard-projection-social impact evaluation–risk-estimation–risk-countermeasures. The risk from tropical storm surge inundation is responsible for most of the damage and loss [10,11,12] and is projected to worsen as coastal cities grow and the natural environment changes [13,14]. Previous studies have focused on assessing storm surge inundation risk in terms of hazard prediction [18,19,20], there is little information on risk assessment that integrates storm surge inundation hazard, exposure, and vulnerability because of climate change
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