Simulation-based dynamic risk analysis of urban buried gas pipeline network

Abstract

With the increasing scale and complex structure of urban buried gas pipeline network, traditional analysis techniques have become difficult to meet the risk cognitive needs of the system. The advantages of simulation technology in analyzing risks of such complex system thus become prominent. This study proposes a new simulation-based method to analyze the risk of urban buried gas pipeline network. First, the network structure and key factors of the risk system are determined according to the author's previous research. The dynamic mechanics of risk transfer in the risk system is characterized based on the Complex Dynamic Network Theory. Second, the simulation model is developed based on Arena software, which can quantitatively evaluate the effect of different risk control strategies. Third, a series of simulation experiments under four scenarios are conducted. The results show that when there is an additional risk disposal resource, the most efficient strategy for risk control is allocating it by importance of key risk factors. The correctness of the selection of key factors has thus been verified. Finally, this paper illustrates the applicability of the risk simulation model by taking an actual gas pipeline network as an example. The results show that only focusing on superficial direct risk factors cannot control risk to an acceptable level. Some suggestions to improve the risk control efficiency for the engineering example are also derived from the simulation results.