Abstract
This article presents a discrete event simulation-based approach for assessing the operating performance of the Finnish–Swedish Winter Navigation System (FSWNS) under different operating scenarios. Different operating scenarios are specified in terms of ice conditions, the volume of maritime traffic, number of icebreakers (IBs), and regulations such as the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI). Considered performance indicators include transport capacity, number of instances of icebreaker (IB) assistance, and IB waiting times. The approach is validated against real-world data on maritime traffic in the Bothnian Bay. In terms of the number of ship arrivals per port, indicating the transport capacity of the FSWNS, the simulation agrees well with the data. In terms of the number of instances of IB assistance and IB waiting times per port, the standard deviations between the mean of 35 independent simulation runs and the data are 13% and 18%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the simulated number of instances of IB assistance and IB waiting times is particularly sensitive to assumptions concerning the presence of brash ice channels. Case studies indicate that, unless the number of IBs is increased, the EEDI regulations may result in a significant increase in both the number of instances of IB assistance and the cumulated IB waiting times.
Highlights
The Baltic Sea is an important transit route connecting numerous countries and markets
To make sure that ships have enough ice-going capability for safe and efficient operations, they must be built and operated following the Finnish–Swedish Ice Class Rules (FSICR) [5]. These are enforced by port-specific traffic restrictions set by Finnish and Swedish maritime authorities in terms of the minimum ice class and deadweight needed to be eligible for IB assistance [5]
The aim of the Finnish–Swedish Ice Class Rules (FSICR) is to ensure that ships operating on the northern Baltic Sea, to and from Finnish and Swedish ports, have sufficient ice-going capability to maintain safe and efficient navigation year-round [13]
Summary
The Baltic Sea is an important transit route connecting numerous countries and markets. To make sure that ships have enough ice-going capability for safe and efficient operations, they must be built and operated following the Finnish–Swedish Ice Class Rules (FSICR) [5] These are enforced by port-specific traffic restrictions set by Finnish and Swedish maritime authorities in terms of the minimum ice class and deadweight needed to be eligible for IB assistance [5]. (Polaris, Fennica, Nordica, Otso, Kontio, Voima, Sisu, and Urho), whereas Sweden has a fleet of five major IBs (Ale, Atle, Frej, Oden, and Ymer) Both in the short- and longer-term, the performance of the FSWNS is expected to be influenced by the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) regulations. As the approach [12] appears not to be based on ship entities, it is unclear how it handles various interaction and self-reinforcing behaviors of the FSWNS (e.g., if a ship arrives late at a port, it should leave the port late), which might be significant in an extreme scenario
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