Simulation-based assessment of supply chain resilience with consideration of recovery strategies in the COVID-19 pandemic context

Abstract

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, many firms lacked a strategy to cope with disruptions and maintain resiliency. In this study, we develop a measurement method to evaluate the impact of resilience strategies in a multi-stage supply chain (SC) in the presence of a pandemic. For the first time, we propose a method to deduce quantitative resilience assessment from simulation. We implement two resilience strategies, i.e., prepositioning extra-inventory and a backup supplier, and then we simulate its impact on SC resilience and financial performance. The simulation results indicate that the extra inventory leads to a higher resilience than a backup supplier but costs more for the given contextual setting. Finally, we examine the demand fulfillment and observe that the extra-inventory strategy allows for a higher service level, confirming our resilience simulations. We discuss the managerial implications of these findings on the descriptive and predictive analysis levels. Decision-makers can utilize our model and findings to develop a response plan in the occurrence of a pandemic or any long-duration high magnitude disruption. Also, scholars and managers can use our proposed method to measure SC resiliency from simulation in any disruption.