Abstract
Executed outdoors in high-wind areas, adverse weather conditions represent a significant risk to onshore wind farm construction activities. While methods for considering historical weather data during pre-construction scheduling are available, approaches capable of quantitatively assessing how short-term weather fluctuations may impact upcoming construction activities have yet to be developed. This study is proposing a hybrid simulation-based approach that uses short-term precipitation, wind speed, and temperature forecasts together with planned and as-built activity durations to develop lookahead (e.g., upcoming 14-day) schedules for improved project planning and control. Functionality and applicability of the method was demonstrated on a case study of a 40 MW onshore wind project, and the method was validated using event validity, face validation, and sensitivity analysis. As expected, favorable weather conditions experienced during the tested lookahead periods resulted in a negligible impact (less than 10% reduction) on the productivity of weather-sensitive activities, which translated into a project delay of one day. The responsiveness of the framework was confirmed through sensitivity analysis, which demonstrated a 50% reduction in productivity resulting from poor weather conditions. The ability of the method to provide decision-support not currently offered by commercially-available scheduling systems was confirmed by subject experts, who endorsed the ability of the method to enhance lookahead scheduling and to facilitate the monitoring and control of weather impact uncertainty on project durations.
Highlights
Many countries are transitioning their energy production towards renewable sources to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and meet sustainability targets
Onshore wind projects are constructed in outdoor environments characterized by high wind speeds [2] and other adverse weather events that can result in significant construction delays [2,3,4]
Weather conditions during the first update period were favorable (Table S2), with air temperatures ranging between 14.3 ◦ C to 23.4 ◦ C, wind speeds remaining below 8.75 m/s, and precipitation rates below 0.5 mm/h for out of the days
Summary
Many countries are transitioning their energy production towards renewable sources to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and meet sustainability targets. To meet the growing demand, installation of additional wind farms and supporting infrastructure is necessary. Onshore wind projects are constructed in outdoor environments characterized by high wind speeds [2] and other adverse weather events that can result in significant construction delays [2,3,4]. The schedule delay of an average wind farm project was estimated to be approximately 10% of the planned project duration [5]. Delays in wind farm construction are problematic [6], as most contracts between the owner and the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor(s) include a provision for liquidated damages if a project exceeds the contractually-specified end date [7]. Completing wind farm construction tasks on time is essential for ensuring profitability [6]
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