Abstract
Fish habitat in lakes is strongly constrained by water temperature (T) and available dissolved oxygen (DO) that are changed under climate warming. A one dimensional, dynamic water quality model MINLAKE2012 was used for T and DO simulation over 48 years. A fish habitat model FishHabitat2013 using simulated T and DO profiles as input was developed to determine lethal conditions of cisco Corgenous artedi in Minnesota lakes. Twenty-three lakes that had observations of cisco mortality or survival in the unusually warm summer of 2006 were used for model validation. The cisco habitat model used a lethal temperature of 22.1 °C and DO survival limit of 3 mg/L determined through model validation and sensitivity analysis. Cisco lethal conditions in 12 shallow, 16 medium-depth, and 30 deep virtual lakes were then simulated. Isopleths of total number of years with cisco kill and average cisco kill days for the years with kills under past (1961–2008) and future climate were generated to understand/extrapolate climate impacts on cisco in 620 Minnesota lakes. Shallow and medium-depth lakes are projected to not be good candidates for cisco refuge lakes, but deep lakes are possible cisco refuge lakes based on lethal condition projection under future warmer climate.
Highlights
Fish growth and survival in lakes are constrained by several environmental factors such as water temperature (T), available dissolved oxygen (DO), food supply, and human interference
Resulting lethal conditions for cisco are 2, 5, 0, and 8 days; which are non-linear complex responses to the increase in Secchi depth when lake geometry and weather conditions are the same
In previous studies [20,30], all 620 cisco lakes were not grouped into shallow, medium-depth, and deep lakes by maximum depth, but all lakes regardless of maximum depth were plotted on contour plots of TDO3 using lake geometry ratio and Secchi depth as independent variables for classify cisco lakes into tier 1, 2, and 3 refuge lakes
Summary
Fish growth and survival in lakes are constrained by several environmental factors such as water temperature (T), available dissolved oxygen (DO), food supply, and human interference. T and DO, the two most significant water quality parameters affecting survival of fishes in lakes [1,2,3,4,5,6], were simulated using a one-dimensional lake water quality model MINLAKE2012 and were used to simulate/project cold-water fish survival and lethal conditions in 620 cisco lakes in Minnesota under past climate conditions (1961–2008) and one future climate scenario. Projected changes of T and DO characteristics due to climate warming have the potential to reduce cold-water fish habitat or result in fish kill in lakes [12,13,14].
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