Abstract
The Yellow River Basin (YRB), located in the northern region of China, has a fragile ecological environment. With the construction of urbanization and ecological restoration projects, the YRB LULC has undergone significant change. In this study, we used the coupled Markov-FLUS model by combining natural and social driver factors to predict and simulate the LULC of the YRB in 2030, and then the LULC transfer matrix was used to analyze the characteristics of LULC change in the YRB from 1990 to 2030. The results of the study are as follows. (1) For the simulated result of LULC compared with the same period observed result, the Kappa coefficient is 0.92, indicating the coupled Markov-FLUS model has good applicability in the YRB. (2) The LULC in the YRB shows significant spatial autocorrelation. The cropland is mainly distributed in the eastern region, which is dominated by plain; woodland is mainly distributed in the central region; grassland is mainly distributed in the northern, central, and western region; waterbody is mainly distributed in the western region; built-up land is mainly distributed in the northern, south-central, and eastern region; unused land is mainly distributed in the central, northern, and western region. (3) From 1990 to 2000, the area of cropland transferred in significantly and the area of grassland transferred out significantly; from 2000 to 2015, the area of construction land transferred in significantly and the area of cultivated land transferred out significantly; from 2015 to 2030, the amount of cropland transferred out will be large, and the conversion of each other LULC type will be not significant compared with the previous periods, and the conversion structure of LULC will tend to be stable. This study is a crucial reference value for the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.
Highlights
Introduction iationsLand use/land cover (LULC) variation changes the original surface characteristics of a region [1,2] and has important impact on the local physical and social geography environment [3,4], which has become a hot research topic in international earth system science [5]
The cropland is mainly distributed in the eastern region, which is dominated by plain; woodland is mainly distributed in the central region; grassland is mainly distributed in the northern, central, and western region; waterbody is mainly distributed in the western region; built-up land is mainly distributed in the northern, south-central, and eastern region; unused land is mainly distributed in the central, northern, and western region
In the study of LULC change, the LULC change process can be regarded as a Markov process, and the LULC type at a certain moment corresponds to the possible states in the Markov process, which is only related to its LULC type at the previous moment, and the number or proportion of the area of interconversion between
Summary
Introduction iationsLand use/land cover (LULC) variation changes the original surface characteristics of a region [1,2] and has important impact on the local physical and social geography environment [3,4], which has become a hot research topic in international earth system science [5]. LULC change is a vital element of different natural and social environmental change such as the carbon cycle [6], hydrological characteristics [7], urban expansion [8,9], etc. It is crucial for policy makers and researchers to rapidly and accurately predict and simulate the future LULC of a region and analyze its LULC spatio-temporal variation characteristics for land resource management, which is considered as an important way to achieve regional sustainable development [10].
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