Simulation and Prediction of Sea Level Rise Impact on the Distribution of Mangrove and Spartina alterniflora in Coastal China

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) has a significant impact on the vegetation ecosystem in coastal wetlands. Taking coastal China as the study area, the SLAMM (sea level rise affecting marsh model) was used to simulate the continuous long-term (2015–2100) effects of the spatiotemporal changes in mangrove and Spartina alterniflora in the four shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) of sea level rise by 2100; then, ArcGis was used to assess and compare the impact of SLR on land use. The results are as follows. (1) The dramatic reduction in the vegetation area is positively correlated with the rate of sea level rise. (2) Tidal differences and sedimentation rates affect the response of mangrove and S. alterniflora distribution to sea level rise, as well as interactions between organisms. (3) The reasonable land use of coastal wetlands is important to researchers. Land use is one of the tools for effective mangrove conservation. In conclusion, in scientific research and production practice, it is important to combine the biotic and abiotic factors affecting the distribution of mangroves and S. alterniflora.