Abstract
Decision-makers in the fields of urban and regional planning in Germany face new challenges. High rates of urban sprawl need to be reduced by increased inner-urban development while settlements have to adapt to climate change and contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions at the same time. In this study, we analyze conflicts in the management of urban areas and develop integrated sustainable land use strategies for Germany. The spatial explicit land use change model Land Use Scanner is used to simulate alternative scenarios of land use change for Germany for 2030. A multi-criteria analysis is set up based on these scenarios and based on a set of indicators. They are used to measure whether the mitigation and adaptation objectives can be achieved and to uncover conflicts between these aims. The results show that the built-up and transport area development can be influenced both in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Strengthening the inner-urban development is particularly effective in terms of reducing built-up and transport area development. It is possible to reduce built-up and transport area development to approximately 30 ha per day in 2030, which matches the sustainability objective of the German Federal Government for the year 2020. In the case of adaptation to climate change, the inclusion of extreme flood events in the context of spatial planning requirements may contribute to a reduction of the damage potential.
Highlights
Since more than half of the world’s population lives in cities the impacts of climate change on urbanized areas are a key challenge for most countries [1].Urbanization has progressed in recent decades and is projected to continue
The results show that the built-up and transport area development can be influenced both in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation
The aim of this study is to examine what measures have an effect on the achievement of climate change mitigation objectives and what measures are appropriate to adopt the land use and settlement patterns to climate change adaptation
Summary
Since more than half of the world’s population lives in cities the impacts of climate change on urbanized areas are a key challenge for most countries [1].Urbanization has progressed in recent decades and is projected to continue. It is not surprising that 60 to 70% of the world’s CO2 emissions are related to urban areas and it goes along with serious changes of the available land resources [2] Aside from these processes, there are regions that face a period of urban restructuring due to demographic and industrial decline and where the settlement structure reaches carrying capacity problems [1,3]. Together with inefficient spatial planning, protection of these settlements is inadequate [6,7,8] Another implication induced by climate change is the development of urban heat islands, which influences human health by heat-related illness or mortality [9,10]. Against this background the question arises, how can land and, in particular urban land, be managed in a sustainable way?
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