Abstract
Precipitation is critical for maintaining the stability of an ecosystem, especially in arid regions. This study primarily focuses on climatic changes during present (from 1985 to 2005) and future (from 2040 to 2059) periods in Xinjiang, Northwest China. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting model is implemented in Xinjiang to efficiently predict the future climate. Moreover, the National Climate Research Center Community Climate System Model version 4 is employed for the mid-21st century under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). Our results indicate that the amount of annual precipitation will increase in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Xinjiang, especially in mountainous areas. The increase in precipitation is predicted to be much smaller under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5, except in Southern Xinjiang. Moreover, the increasing precipitation predicted in Xinjiang implies that the current humid and warm conditions will persist, thereby further indicating that Xinjiang is still currently suffering from a dry climate. The largest increase in seasonal precipitation is predicted to occur in spring and summer in Tianshan and Northern Xinjiang, whereas this phenomenon is predicted to occur in spring and winter in Southern Xinjiang. In addition, it is predicted that daily heavy precipitation events will occur more frequently in various subregions of Xinjiang, although light rain events will remain dominant. Finally, the relative humidity is closely related to the changes in annual and seasonal precipitation.
Highlights
Global climate change and climate variations are significantly affected by human activities (Li et al, 2011)
The CCSM4 data slightly underestimated the precipitation in Tianshan, they significantly overestimated the precipitation in Southern and Northern Xinjiang
A regional climate model called the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model was used to downscale the CCSM4 model in Xinjiang for the present (i.e., 1986–2005) and near future (i.e., 2040–2059) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios
Summary
Global climate change and climate variations are significantly affected by human activities (Li et al, 2011). In the past 130 years, the earth has experienced significant warming, with the surface air temperature increasing by 0.85 °C (Solomon et al, 2007; Stocker, 2014). Xinjiang has a typically continental and arid or semi-arid climate with an annual precipitation range from less than 50 mm in Tarim Basin to approximately 800 mm in the Tianshan Mountains (Chen et al, 2009; Domrös and Peng, 2012; Tan and Shao, 2017; Wang et al, 2013). The total amount of annual precipitation in some areas such as the Taklamakan desert is zero in some years, Xinjiang has experienced an overall change from a warm and dry to warm and wet climate (Shi et al, 2007; Xu et al, 2010). The average surface air temperature in Xinjiang has increased by 0.18 °C per decade in the last century, which is much higher than the global average rate (Chen et al, 2009)
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