Simulation analysis of the constraints on the green retrofit of existing buildings and strategies for its promotion: a hybrid method based on ISM and SD

Abstract

ABSTRACT To clarify the influencing factors of green retrofit and formulate feasible promotion strategies, 23 constraints from the five dimensions of policy and law, economic management, the market environment, green technology, and the willingness of owners are identified through 10 project case studies, a literature review and a questionnaire survey. This study further integrates the hybrid method of interpretative structural modeling (ISM) and system dynamics (SD), and utilizes data from the green retrofit project of an existing building in Shenzhen to establish equations, which can explore the impacts of changes in key constraints on the green retrofit of existing buildings, and to seek strategies for its promotion. The results show that a single strategy has a limited impact on the green retrofit of existing buildings, whereas a combined strategy is more effective. The overall improvement of government propaganda efforts, the supervision and management mechanism, scientific research investment, the green retrofit industrial chain and other variables is found to have a significant promoting effect on the green retrofit of existing buildings. The conclusions of this study can provide a reference for the decision-making of relevant implementation departments.