Simulation Analysis of Land-Use Pattern Evolution and Valuation of Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage of Changzhi City, China

Abstract

Carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems is critical for combating global climate change and achieving regional carbon neutrality, and LUCC is a vital factor influencing the carbon cycle process of terrestrial ecosystems and causing changes in carbon sources/sinks. This study analyzes the drivers of LUCC based on a review of the dynamics of LUCC in Changzhi from 2000 to 2020, analyzes the driving factors of LUCC using the Clue-S model and binary logistic regression analysis model, then simulates land-use patterns under different scenarios in 2030 by the CA-Markov model, and finally analyzes carbon stock changes and spatial distribution characteristics in different periods from the perspective of carbon source/sink interconversion with the help of InVEST model. The results show: (1) in the past two decades, more than 90% of the expansion of artificial surfaces in Changzhi comes from cultivated land. Ecological conservation policies are more decisive in influencing LUCC than natural, social, and transportation accessibility factors. (2) During the 20 years, the total carbon stock increased by 680,989.73 t, with the carbon emission control area accounting for 7.5%, mainly distributed near urban centers and coal mining areas. The carbon sink enhancement area accounts for 5.5% and is mainly concentrated near forest land and ecological and nature reserves. (3) The spatial location of cities influences the density of carbon stock in the adjacent range. Carbon stock density increases within the buffer zone with the distance from urban center, county center, expressways, national highway, settlements, rivers, provincial roads, reservoirs, railways, county highway, and village roads. The rate of carbon stock increase per 100 m is 0.12 t/ha, 0.25 t/ha, 0.17 t/ha, 0.36 t/ha, 0.71 t/ha, 0.33 t/ha, 0.38 t/ha, 0.57 t/ha, 0.23 t/ha, 0.46 t/ha, and 0.48 t/ha respectively. The higher the administrative center and road grades, the lower the carbon density will be instead. (4) In the 2030 CD scenario, compared with the ND scenario, the cultivated land and grassland are effectively protected and the cultivated land area is increased by 445.68 km2, while the expansion of artificial surface is suppressed and the area is reduced by 448.2 km2, which ultimately leads to a reduction in carbon loss of 392,011.85 t. Future ecological management should focus on protecting high-value carbon sink areas and carbon sink enhancement areas and the ecological management and restoration of low-value carbon sink areas and carbon emission control areas.