Abstract
The prediction of qualitative effects of long-term succession of aquatic organism communities with possible responses of the ecosystem to disturbances of the natural homeostasis becomes possible with the structure of the ecosystem taken into account. Among the possible lines of its development, analyzed is the one that maximizes a thermodynamic characteristic—exergy, which reflects how far the ecosystem stands from the state of “dead” matter. The results of calculations by a modified model of biogeochemical cycles in a series of dry years are in agreement with the expert estimates for the development of eutrophication process in the Novosibirsk reservoir in the recent years. A nonmodified model fails to provide such agreement.
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