Simulating Urban Expansion Based on Ecological Security Pattern-A Case Study of Hangzhou, China.

Xiaochang Yang,Hongwei Xu,Baiyu Dong,Congmou Zhu,Sinan Li

doi:10.3390/ijerph19010301

Abstract

Disordered urban expansion has encroached on a large amount of ecological land, resulting in the steady degradation of urban ecology, which has an adverse effect on the sustainable development of the region. An ecological security pattern can effectively control urban expansion, and it is of great significance to balance urban development and ecological protection. In order to analyze the impact of ecological security patterns on urban expansion, Hangzhou was taken as an example, the CA-Markov model and FLUS model were used to simulate the urban expansion pattern in 2030 under the natural development scenario and the ecological security scenario. The results showed that (1) the ecological source area in the study area is 630.90 km2 and was mainly distributed in the western mountainous area. There are 14 ecological corridors, primarily composed of valleys and rivers. Ecological nodes are mainly distributed on the north and south sides of the main urban area. (2) From 2000 to 2018, the annual increase index (AI) of construction land decreased in the northeast and southeast directions but increased in the northwest and southwest directions, and in the northeast direction the value was always the highest. Except for the southwest direction, the average annual growth rate (AGR) of construction land in the other directions decreased. At a distance from the city center of 30 km, AI was relatively higher and was increasing, while AGR was declining. At a distance of 30–45 km, both AI and AGR were increasing, indicating that the focus of construction land was moving outwards. (3) From 2018 to 2030, under both natural development scenario and ecological security scenario, construction land would keep expanding, but the construction land area, proportion, AI, and AGR of the latter would both be smaller than the former, indicating that the ecological security pattern can effectively curb urban expansion. Because of a large amount area of ecological sources, the expansion of construction land in the southwest direction would be constrained, especially under the ecological security scenario. The methods and results of this study can provide theoretical and application references for urban planning and green development in metropolises.

Highlights

Ecological sources were identified by the morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) method and dPC value; given the actual situation, large water patches were included in the ecological sources
Ecological sources were comprised of different land use types, and woodland was the majority, which accounted for 93.84%
Ecological security patterns are of great significance to the optimization of urban patterns

Summary

Introduction

Urban expansion is often manifested as construction land sprawl in unbuilt areas. Under the influence of the long-term policies of prioritizing economic development, a large amount of non-construction land has been converted into construction land, especially in urban areas. With the rapid expansion of construction land, a large area of ecological lands, such as agricultural land, vegetation, and water, has shrunk drastically [1]. More and more scholars have noticed the negative ecological impact caused by urban expansion [2]: the expansion of built-up areas has led to the heat island effect [3,4], and there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between environmental pollution and urban expansion [5].

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion