Simulating transmission and control of Taenia solium infections using a Reed-Frost stochastic model

Abstract

The transmission dynamics of the human-pig zoonotic cestode Taenia solium are explored with both deterministic and stochastic versions of a modified Reed-Frost model. This model, originally developed for microparasitic infections (i.e. bacteria, viruses and protozoa), assumes that random contacts occur between hosts and that hosts can be either susceptible, infected or ‘recovered and presumed immune’. Transmission between humans and pigs is modelled as susceptible roaming pigs scavenging on human faeces infected with T. solium eggs. Transmission from pigs to humans is modelled as susceptible humans eating under-cooked pork meat harbouring T. solium metacestodes. Deterministic models of each scenario were first run, followed by stochastic versions of the models to assess the likelihood of infection elimination in the small population modelled. The effects of three groups of interventions were investigated using the model: (i) interventions affecting the transmission parameters such as use of latrines, meat inspection, and cooking habits; (ii) routine interventions including rapid detection and treatment of human carriers or pig vaccination; and (iii) treatment interventions of either humans or pigs. It is concluded that mass-treatment can result in a short term dramatic reduction in prevalence, whereas interventions targeting interruption of the life cycle lead to long-term reduction in prevalence.