Simulating the value of electric-vehicle–grid integration using a behaviourally realistic model

Abstract

Vehicle–grid integration (VGI) uses the interaction between electric vehicles and the electrical grid to provide benefits that may include reducing the cost of using intermittent renwable electricity or providing a financial incentive for electric vehicle ownerhip. However, studies that estimate the value of VGI benefits have largely ignored how consumer behaviour will affect the magnitude of the impact. Here, we simulate the long-term impact of VGI using behaviourally realistic and empirically derived models of vehicle adoption and charging combined with an electricity system model. We focus on the case where a central entity manages the charging rate and timing for participating electric vehicles. VGI is found not to increase the adoption of electric vehicles, but does have a a small beneficial impact on electricity prices. By 2050, VGI reduces wholesale electricity prices by 0.6–0.7% (0.7 $ MWh–1, 2010 CAD) relative to an equivalent scenario without VGI. Excluding consumer behaviour from the analysis inflates the value of VGI. Vehicle–grid integration may reduce renewable electricity costs and increase electric vehicle ownership. Simulations combining empirically derived models of vehicle adoption and charging with an electricity system model show that excluding consumer behaviour inflates these benefits.