Simulating the urban growth dimensions and scenario prediction through sleuth model: a case study of Rasht County, Guilan, Iran

Abstract

Urban growth models (UGM) as regional planning tools are of great interest for quantitative analysis of urban complex systems. In this study, the SLEUTH UGM has been calibrated through a sequential multistage automated method to derive the pattern of urban growth in Rasht County from 1975 up to year 2011. Evaluation of model goodness of fit confirms that the model is adjusted properly to the area under investigation. Four growth rules of spontaneous, new spreading center, edge and road influenced growth as well as five coefficients of diffusion, breed, spread, road gravity and slope resistance are responsible to detect quantitative aspects of urban dynamics from control years. According to the results, successive improvement of the model parameters during the calibration mode indicates applicability of the model for forecasting of future urban growth mechanism until the year 2050. Accordingly, two growth scenarios were developed mainly with the aim of investigating the coefficients’ role in controlling the nature of urban dynamics. In this concern, the spread and road gravity coefficients’ value, as two major driving forces of urban sprawl in the study area were reduced to dictate compact and infill growth, compared to their original values derived from calibration for historical prediction. Comparison between two forecasted scenarios indicates insignificant difference in total amount of the urban area, which denotes there is a threshold to urbanization and the current trend of urban growth could not be maintained. Finally, we conclude that Rasht County with considerable industrial and agricultural attractions, will witness noticeable expansion from 20,310 ha in 2011, up to 34,745 ha in 2050, accounting to 71 % increase in total area of manmade surfaces.