Abstract
Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) has become one of the deadly epidemics that have caused the death of many in recent times. Three West African countries; Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea have experienced the worst spread of the disease since the disease outbreak recently. There have been suspected, probable and confirmed 17,145 reported cases of the disease in all the affected countries, with 6,070 reported deaths. This paper employs the SIRS (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered and Susceptible) model and cellular automata model (global stochastic contact model) with real parameters that include average contact, recovery period, infectious period and transmission probability to simulate in order to understand how the new Ebola experimental drug (ZMAPP) that is used to cure 3 patients could impact on a population hit by the disease and the period of time it will take to eradicate the epidemic. The study can serve as a basis for understanding the vaccination effect on Ebola virus based on real parameters.
Highlights
An area of public health which is concerned with study of the distribution and the determinants of disease frequency is referred to as epidemiology [1]
Liberia who shares a border with Sierra Leone and Guinea have recorded the first case of Ebola in March of 2014 with total recorded confirmed of about 7,635 cases and 3,145 deaths [5]
The SIRS model can be represented with ordinary differential equation (ODE): dS =−β × S × I + σ × R dt dI = β × S × I − γ × l dt dR = γ × I −σ × R dt In the above SIRS model the S represents the number of people susceptible or yet to be infected with the disease
Summary
An area of public health which is concerned with study of the distribution and the determinants of disease frequency is referred to as epidemiology [1]. The most affected countries within the region can be categorized into those with intense transmission like Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone and those who had an initial case of the disease like, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Spain and the United States of America [5]. The country has witnessed the total of 2,167 confirmed case incidence and 1,327 deaths from March to December 2014 [5]. The virus was spread to the neighbouring Sierra Leone in May 2014 with recent report showing 7,312 reported confirmed cases and 1,583 deaths. Liberia who shares a border with Sierra Leone and Guinea have recorded the first case of Ebola in March of 2014 with total recorded confirmed of about 7,635 cases and 3,145 deaths [5]
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