Simulating the Potential of Model-Based Individualized Prescriptions for Ultracentral Lung Tumors

Abstract

The use of stereotactic body radiation therapy for ultracentral lung tumors is limited by increased toxicity. We hypothesized that using published normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) and tumor control probability (TCP) models could improve the therapeutic ratio between tumor control and toxicity. A proposed model-based approach was applied to virtually replan early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) tumors. The analysis included 63 patients with ultracentral NSCLC tumors treated at our center between 2008 and 2017. Along with current clinical constraints, additional NTCP model-based criteria, including for grade 3+ radiation pneumonitis (RP3+) and grade 2+ esophagitis, were implemented using 4 different fractionation schemes. Scaled dose distributions resulting in the highest TCP without violating constraints were selected (optimal plan [Planopt]). Planopt predictions were compared with the observed local control and toxicities. The observed 2-year local control rate was 72% (95% CI, 57%-88%) compared with 87% (range, 6%-93%) for Planopt TCP. Thirty-nine patients had Planopt with TCP > 80%, and 14 patients had Planopt TCP < 50%. The Planopt NTCPs for RP3+ were reduced by nearly half compared with patients' observed RP3+. The RP3+ NTCP was the most frequent reason for TCP of Planopt < 80% (14/24 patients), followed by grade 2+ esophagitis NTCP (5/24 patients) due to larger tumors (>40 cc vs ≤40 cc; P=.002) or a shorter tumor to esophagus distance (≥5 cm vs <5 cm; P < .001). We demonstrated the potential for model-based prescriptions to yield higher TCP while respecting NTCP for patients with ultracentral NSCLC. Individualizing treatments based on NTCP- and TCP-driven simulations halved the predicted relative to the observed rates of RP3+. Our simulations also identified patients whose TCP could not be improved without violating NTCP due to larger tumors or a near tumor to esophagus proximity.