Simulating the indirect effects of power plant entrainment losses on an estuarine ecosystem

Abstract

Entrainment caused by the operation of the Chalk Point Steam Electric Station has been shown to be a major source of mortality to the early life stages of forage fish populations in the Patuxent River, MD, USA. While direct losses to these populations are important as a source of reduction for population abundance, these losses also represent decreases in estuarine forage supplies and potential reductions in the abundances of estuarine predators. A simple estuarine trophic dynamics model was constructed to determine the magnitude of the potential losses to major estuarine consumers in the Patuxent River ecosystem due to the power plant-related losses of forage fish. Simulations were completed using two sets of feeding assumptions: feeding proportional to forage abundance, and feeding based on dietary preferences. The model demonstrates that striped bass, bluefish, and weakfish could experience significant losses (> 25%) to overall population production levels if they prefer to prey upon bay anchovy and silversides and entrainment losses to these forage populations is ≥ 70% of juvenile recruitment. The model also shows that indirect predator losses would be expected to be low (< 5%) if the majority of their diets consisted of forage other than bay anchovy and silversides.