Abstract
Heilongjiang Province is under the pressure of a water shortage due to climate change, population growth and economic development. To effectively manage regional land and water resources, this paper describes a system dynamics model that was built to simulate the interaction between land and water resources and socioeconomic factors, as well as the evolution of regional land and water resources in different climates in Heilongjiang Province. The results show that the declining trend of unused land area and the water supply–demand ratio will not stop, even under the most optimistic (e.g., humid climate) climate conditions, if the current land use patterns continue. Therefore, measures should be taken to manage the unreasonable usage patterns of land and water resources in this region. This study simulated the evolution of regional land and water resources for five scenarios under an arid climate by changing the net irrigation quota for paddy fields, the water quota for industrial use, forestland area, annual change rate of farmland area, and the growth rate of the gross industrial output value. Further, a combined scenario that can maximally reduce the regional land and water resource sustainable risk was identified. The simulation of the combined scenario showed that it can effectively increase the degree of regional land and water resource use in the region, as well as reduce the risks that threaten these resources. This study provides theoretical support for the efficient use of land and water resources in the future.
Highlights
Land and water resources are important for human survival; they show a region’s resource endowment, and determine the region’s agricultural and industrial development patterns [1,2,3]
This study analyzed the evolution of the system under different climates and concluded that the region faced a risk of supply and demand of land and water resources
This paper shows the evolution of regional land and water resources as a result of many driving forces
Summary
Land and water resources are important for human survival; they show a region’s resource endowment, and determine the region’s agricultural and industrial development patterns [1,2,3]. The evolution of regional land and water resources has become more dynamic and complex than ever due to climate change, relevant policies, and economic development. In a regional environmental system, Province, which was built to simulate the evolution of the system under different conditionswater (e.g., and land resources can be used as key components of the resource subsystem; by analyzing the economic policies, climate change) and can systematically analyze the land and water use patterns, production and consumption of land and water resources, the overall impact of the resource subsystem analyze the interaction between the conditions and results, and identify the potential risks of using on the regional environmental system can region.
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