Simulating the elimination of sleeping sickness with an agent-based model.

Abstract

Although Human African Trypanosomiasis is largely considered to be in the process of extinction today, the persistence of human and animal reservoirs, as well as the vector, necessitates a laborious elimination process. In this context, modeling could be an effective tool to evaluate the ability of different public health interventions to control the disease. Using the Cormas® system, we developed HATSim, an agent-based model capable of simulating the possible endemic evolutions of sleeping sickness and the ability of National Control Programs to eliminate the disease. This model takes into account the analysis of epidemiological, entomological, and ecological data from field studies conducted during the last decade, making it possible to predict the evolution of the disease within this area over a 5-year span. In this article, we first present HATSim according to the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol that is classically used to describe agent-based models, then, in a second part, we present predictive results concerning the evolution of Human African Trypanosomiasis in the village of Lambi (Cameroon), in order to illustrate the interest of such a tool. Our results are consistent with what was observed in the field by the Cameroonian National Control Program (CNCP). Our simulations also revealed that regular screening can be sufficient, although vector control applied to all areas with human activities could be significantly more efficient. Our results indicate that the current model can already help decision-makers in planning the elimination of the disease in foci.