Abstract
Sea Level Rise (SLR) caused by climate change is impacting coastal wetlands around the globe. Due to their distinctive biophysical characteristics and unique plant communities, freshwater tidal wetlands are expected to exhibit a different response to SLR as compared with the better studied salt marshes. In this study we employed the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM), which simulates regional- or local-scale changes in tidal wetland habitats in response to SLR, and adapted it for application in a freshwater-dominated tidal river system, the Hudson River Estuary. Using regionally-specific estimated ranges of SLR and accretion rates, we produced simulations for a spectrum of possible future wetland distributions and quantified the projected wetland resilience, migration or loss in the HRE through the end of the 21st century. Projections of total wetland extent and migration were more strongly determined by the rate of SLR than the rate of accretion. Surprisingly, an increase in net tidal wetland area was projected under all scenarios, with newly-formed tidal wetlands expected to comprise at least 33% of the HRE’s wetland area by year 2100. Model simulations with high rates of SLR and/or low rates of accretion resulted in broad shifts in wetland composition with widespread conversion of high marsh habitat to low marsh, tidal flat or permanent inundation. Wetland expansion and resilience were not equally distributed through the estuary, with just three of 48 primary wetland areas encompassing >50% of projected new wetland by the year 2100. Our results open an avenue for improving predictive models of the response of freshwater tidal wetlands to sea level rise, and broadly inform the planning of conservation measures of this critical resource in the Hudson River Estuary.
Highlights
Tidal wetlands are among the most productive yet highly vulnerable ecosystems in the world [1,2,3,4]
In the results section we present an example of the uncertainty analysis for the Iona Island Marsh tidal wetland area (Fig 1e, #38)
In some instances we report the results of the “consensus” of the MSLR and HSLR scenarios—this is the area where all six simulations overlapped in their projection of the condition reported
Summary
Tidal wetlands are among the most productive yet highly vulnerable ecosystems in the world [1,2,3,4]. Sea Level Rise Effects on Hudson River Tidal Wetlands as nutrient cycle regulation, water filtration, protection from coastal storms, and fish and wildlife habitat [2,5,6,7,8,9] Their location within or near the range of daily tides drives the notable productivity and unique ecosystem functions of tidal wetlands [2,10], and exposes them to climate change impacts from accelerating rates of Sea Level Rise (SLR), as currently being observed and projected by models from various parts of the world [11,12,13,14,15]. Similar efforts to simulate the impacts of SLR on freshwater tidal wetlands along tidal river systems have not been widely attempted or published
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