Simulating the Effects of Agricultural Adaptation Practices onto the Soil Water Content in Future Climate Using SWAT Model on Upland Bystra River Catchment

Abstract

The article presents predicted changes in soil water content in the Bystra river catchment (eastern Poland) for various scenarios of climate change and adaptation practices obtained on the basis of a SWAT model simulation for three regional climate models driven by the global climate model EC-EARTH for the years 2041–2050 and the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 RCP scenarios. Climate scenarios were put against five adaptation scenarios presenting changes in land use and protective measures compared against a zero scenario of BaU (Business as Usual) kept in the future climate. Adaptation scenarios 1–5 are modifications of Scenario 0 (S-0). The 0–5 scenarios’ analysis was based on comparing soil water content and total runoff, sediment yield, actual evapotranspiration. The first adaptation scenario (AS-1) assumes an increase in afforestation on soils from the agricultural suitability complex of soil 6–8 (semi-dry, permanent dry, semi-wet). The second adaptation scenario (AS-2) assumes the creation of a forested buffer for the Bystra River and its tributaries. The third adaptation scenario (AS-3) shows one of the erosion prevention practices, the so-called filter strips. The fourth adaptation scenario (AS-4) assumes the reduction in plowing on arable land. The fifth adaptation scenario (AS-5) involves increasing soil organic carbon to 2%. Simulations revealed that each of the adaptation scenarios 1, 2, 3, 5 does not generally contribute to increasing the water content in soil on BARL (spring crops), CANP (rape), WWHT (winter crops), CRDY (other crops) on arable lands (which together account for over 50% of the catchment area). However, they can contribute to the reduction in sediment yield, total runoff and changes in actual evapotranspiration. The adaptation scenario 4 (AS-4) shows a slight increase in the soil water content on Bystra catchment in the 2041–2050 perspective. Scenario 4 indicated a slight increase in total runoff and a decrease in sediment yield, which in combination with slightly higher water content reflects the protective role of plant residue mulch, lowering the evaporation from the bare soil surface during warm seasons. The no-till adaptation practice had the highest effect in positively affecting water balance at the catchment scale among the adaptation scenarios considered.