Simulating the effect of climate change on barley yield in Ethiopia with the DSSAT‐CERES‐Barley model

Abstract

AbstractClimate change is expected to have a major effect on crop production in sub‐Saharan Africa. Crop models can help to guide crop management under future climate. The objective of the study was to investigate the possible effects of climate change on Ethiopian barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT)‐Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)‐Barley model. The study included field data of two barley cultivars (Traveller and EH‐1493) and four climate study areas in Ethiopia over 5 yr. Climate change scenarios were set up over 60 yr using representative concentration pathways (RCP; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and five global climate models (GCM). The model results indicated that the prediction of days to anthesis and maturity, as well as final grain yield, was highly accurate for cultivar Traveller with normalized RMSE (nRMSE) of 2, 1, and 12%, respectively, and for cultivar EH‐1493 with nRMSE of 2, 4, and 11%. A consistent increase in average temperature up to 5 °C and a mixed pattern of rainfall (‐61 to +86%) were projected. Yield simulations showed a potential reduction in yield up to 98% for cultivar Traveller and 63% for cultivar EH‐1493 in the future. Within a sensitivity analysis, different sowing dates, sowing densities, and fertilizer rates were tested as potential adaptation approaches to climate change. The negative effects of climate change could be mitigated by early sowing, with an increased sowing density of 25% and fertilizer rate of 50% more than what is recommended. Overall, the results indicated the ability of the CERES‐Barley model to evaluate climate change effects and adaptation options on rainfed barley production in Ethiopia.