Simulating the dynamics of cultivated land use in the farming regions of China: A social-economic-ecological system perspective

Abstract

Greater comprehension of the intricate impacts of cultivated land use change on social and natural systems is of paramount importance for both immediate and long-term policy decisions and sustainable agricultural development. While prior research has examined specific elements of cultivated land use, there has been limited empirical research assessing interactions and feedback to examine the interplay among the intricacies of economic growth, social change, and their environmental impacts within a cultivated land use system. Hence, we introduce a nuanced system dynamics simulation model designed to evaluate the intricate interplay among social, economic, and ecological subsystems within the context of cultivated land use, with the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China serving as the case study. Our research elucidates that economic expansion tends to precipitate increased agrochemical application, highlighting that strategies to synchronize economic advancement with agricultural land conservation may alleviate the environmental stressors tied to regional land use. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that an integrative development strategy, which carefully balances economic acceleration with the reinforcement of agricultural land protection, can yield a measurable enhancement in agrarian environmental standards. This presents a feasible trajectory toward synergistic regional development.