Abstract
In this article we highlight the scope of public policy and demographic change for the future path of homeownership. In so doing, we review the literature on the scope of impact of certain policy tools, estimate housing tenure choice models that highlight how sensitive households are to various factors in different time periods to highlight how credit conditions can influence the future path of homeownership, and then simulate the future paths of homeownership in light of prospective changes in young-adult race/ethnicity, education, income, and wealth. The study focuses on prospective changes between 2015 and 2035 to the rate of homeownership among young adults age 25 to 44, prime ages for first-time homebuying. We find that rising education levels—even if minority-white college education gaps were eliminated completely—would only partially reverse the steep declines in young-adult homeownership attainment witnessed since the onset of the housing bust. However, our findings also suggest that the common narrative, which predicts that young-adult homeownership rates will inevitably decline due to increasing racial/ethnic diversity, does not take into account the positive effect of rising educational attainment among minorities on homeownership rates.
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