Abstract
Higher temperatures expected by midcentury increase the risk of shocks to crop production, while the interconnected nature of the current global food system functions to spread the impact of locali ...
Highlights
Food production is vulnerable to climate change and associated extreme weather events
Results from two model versions are reported below, corresponding to two alternative ways that we propose countries could adjust trade flows in response to global supply shocks
In simulating a US Dust Bowl–sized production shock, we introduce a decline in US wheat production for 4 consecutive
Summary
Food production is vulnerable to climate change and associated extreme weather events. Livestock are vulnerable to extreme events such as heat stress, which affects production levels and animal health (Nardone et al, 2010; Renaudeau et al, 2012), and rainfall variability, which impacts pastures, forage crops, and feed grain production (Henry et al, 2012) Both marine and inland fisheries are impacted by climate, with increased ocean temperatures changing the distribution and health of fish species (Brander, 2007; Bell et al, 2013) and rainfall and temperature shifting the spatial distribution and timing of migration and spawning of inland fish (Lynch et al, 2016). Resultant reductions of income and loss of livelihoods serve to amplify these impacts (FAO, 2015)
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