Abstract
BackgroundChanges in the timing of phenological events may cause the annual carbon budget of deciduous forests to change. Therefore, one should take such events into account when evaluating the effects of global warming on deciduous forests. In this article, we report on the results of numerical experiments done with a model that includes a phenological module simulating the timing of bud burst and other phenological events and estimating maximum leaf area index.ResultsThis study suggests that the negative effects of warming on tree productivity (net primary production) outweigh the positive effects of a prolonged growing season. An increase in air temperature by 3°C (5°C) reduces cumulative net primary production by 21.3% (34.2%). Similarly, cumulative net ecosystem production (the difference between cumulative net primary production and heterotrophic respiration) decreases by 43.5% (64.5%) when temperatures are increased by 3°C (5°C). However, the positive effects of CO2 enrichment (2 × CO2) outweigh the negative effects of warming (<5°C).ConclusionAlthough the model was calibrated and validated for a specific forest ecosystem, the implications of the study may be extrapolated to deciduous forests in cool-temperate zones. These forests share common features, and it can be conjectured that carbon stocks would increase in such forests in the face of doubled CO2 and increased temperatures as long as the increase in temperature does not exceed 5°C.
Highlights
Changes in the timing of phenological events may cause the annual carbon budget of deciduous forests to change
Simulated biomass, averaged tree height and organic matter production It was examined whether the model with the adjusted parameters produces realistic population dynamics of the forest over seven years
It was suggested that global carbon cycle is strongly controlled by soil decomposition processes of soil organic carbon and it is important to fully consider soils in assessing the full impact of climate change through a terrestrial carbon cycle modeling approach [39,40]
Summary
Changes in the timing of phenological events may cause the annual carbon budget of deciduous forests to change. There is much apprehension about the great effects of global warming on the forest ecosystems, especially at mid to higher latitudes [1]. The abrupt climate change with the effect of global warming may change distributional pattern of plant species through competition among plants, and the change may affect the global carbon cycle [2] because the vegetation ecosystems, especially forest ecosystems play a significant role in carbon exchanges between an atmosphere and biosphere [e.g.,[36]]. To elucidate the effects of global warming on the deciduous forests in these climate zones and the role of deciduous forests in the global carbon cycle, it is required to develop a phenological model for deciduous trees [17]
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