Simulating storm intensification impact on soil erosion and soil hydrology in various cropping and tillage systems under climate change

Abstract

AbstractStorm intensification in the past half‐century has been documented in the U.S., and the trend will likely become more intense in future. Thus, storm intensification should be considered in impact assessment of climate change on soil erosion. The objective is to simulate how climate change will affect surface runoff, soil erosion, and crop production, using a weather generator‐based downscaling method that explicitly incorporates future storm intensification. A total of 100 climate projections was generated from 25 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios for two future periods. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was run for 29 cropping and tillage systems for Weatherford, Oklahoma, U.S. Compared with baseline, annual precipitation would significantly decrease by 4.6% (P < 0.05) during 2021‐2050 and 5.6% (P < 0.05) during 2051‐2080. Most crop yields would decrease by 10‐18% except cotton. The overall surface runoff (soil loss) averaged over all cropping and tillage systems, 25 GCMs, two emissions and two time periods would decrease by approximate 5.8% (increase by about 2.9%) during 2021‐2080. Soil loss followed the order of reduced till (RT) >conventional till (CT) >delayed till (DT) >no‐till (NT), suggesting no‐till would be a key solution to control soil erosion in future. Evapotranspiration followed the order of CT>NT >DT>RT for both present and future climates. Soil water and deep percolation changed little among tillage practices and climate scenarios. Projected erosion is sensitive to storm intensification, and thus more studies are needed for properly simulating storm intensification in future studies.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.