Abstract
In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks have occurred which have caused worldwide catastrophes. The ability to proactively detect and even predict a potential terrorist risk is critically important for government agencies to react in a timely manner. In this study, a method of geospatial statistics was used to analyse the spatio-temporal evolution of terrorist attacks on the Indochina Peninsula. The machine learning random forest (RF) method was adopted to predict the potential risk of terrorist attacks on the Indochina Peninsula on a spatial scale with 15 driving factors. The RF model performed well with AUC values of 0.839 [95% confidence interval of 0.833–0.844]. The map of the potential distribution of terrorist attack risk was obtained with a 0.05×0.05-degree (approximately 5×5 km) resolution. The results indicate that Thailand is the most dangerous area for terrorist attacks, especially southern Thailand, Bangkok and its surrounding cities. Middle Cambodia and the northern and southern parts of Myanmar are also high-risk areas. Other areas are relatively low risk. This study provides the hotspots for terrorist attacks on a more fine-grained geographical unit. Meanwhile, it shows that machine learning algorithms (e.g., RF) combined with GIS have great potential for simulating the risk of terrorist attacks.
Highlights
Terrorism is a global problem that has drawn substantial attention, especially after the events of 9/11 in the USA in 2001 [1,2,3]
After the end of the Cold War, the United States had a limited influence on the Indochina Peninsula, and Russia was inactive in this region at the time
The machine learning algorithm was coupled with a geo-information system to simulate the risk distribution of terrorist attacks at the pixel scale
Summary
Terrorism is a global problem that has drawn substantial attention, especially after the events of 9/11 in the USA in 2001 [1,2,3]. According to the GTD (Global Terrorism Database), more than 98,773 terrorist attacks were reported between 2001 and 2016, which resulted in approximately 238,808 deaths [4]. These incidents are spatially aggregated in the Middle East, South Asia, and North Africa, which are considered geopolitically vulnerable regions [5,6,7]. The Indochina Peninsula has been impacted by terrorist attacks in recent years [13]. It is of great significance to understand the spatio-temporal evolution of terrorist attacks on the Indochina Peninsula and to predict areas that are potentially at risk. This study focuses on the Indochina Peninsula as its research area
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