Abstract

A change in the usage of land is influenced by a variety of driving factors and policies on spatial constraints. On the basis of considering the conventional natural and socio-economic indicators, the landscape pattern indicators were considered as new driving forces in the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent (CLUE-S) model to simulate spatial and temporal changes of land-use in Beijing. Compared with traditional spatial restrictions characterized by small and isolated areas, such as forest parks and natural reserves, the ecological redline areas increase the spatial integrity and connectivity of ecological and environmental functions at a regional scale, which were used to analyze the distribution patterns and behaviors of land use conversion in the CLUE-S model. The observed results indicate that each simulation scenario has a Kappa coefficient of more than 0.76 beyond the threshold value of 0.6 and represents high agreements between the actual and simulated land use maps. The simulation scenarios including landscape pattern indicators are more accurate than those without consideration of these new driving forces. The simulation results from using ecological redline areas as space constraints have the highest precision compared with the unrestricted and traditionally restricted scenarios. Therefore, the CLUE-S model based on the restriction of ecological redline and the consideration of landscape pattern factors has shown better effectiveness in simulating the future land use change. The conversion of land use types mainly occurred between construction land and cropland during the period from 2010 to 2020. Meanwhile, a large number of grasslands are being changed to construction lands in the mountain towns of northwest Beijing and large quantities of water bodies have disappeared and been replaced by construction lands due to rapid urbanization in the eastern and southern plains. To improve the sustainable use of land resources, it is necessary to adopt the construction and development mode of satellite towns rather than encouraging a disorderly expansion of downtown areas.

Highlights

  • Land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) is considered one of the most profound terrestrial surface changes induced by human activities [1,2]

  • This research featured an application of the CLUE-S model to simulate and analyze past and future land use changes in Beijing, China

  • We focused on the differences resulting from the application of contrasting scenarios based on spatial restrictions and driving factors

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Summary

Introduction

Land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) is considered one of the most profound terrestrial surface changes induced by human activities [1,2]. Ecological redline, recognized as the baseline area of eco-environment system, can provide essential services for the guarantee and maintenance of eco-security and living environment safety [15]. This policy sets rigorous targets for LUCC, which includes that the area cannot be decreased, function cannot be reduced and nature cannot be changed in ecological redline areas. It helps decision-makers to further fill the knowledge gap of “where there can be an orderly development and where there must be strict protection.”

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